Simcoe County Real Estate Market Update: October 2026 (Barrie, Innisfil, Bradford, Orillia)
TRREB released its October 2026 Market Watch on November 4, so here is my monthly read on Simcoe County. The short version: in the south Simcoe towns TRREB tracks, fewer homes sold than a year ago, but new listings fell just as fast, so the balance between buyers and sellers barely moved. Prices are still below last October, though the median edged up from September. Below is a town-by-town look at Barrie, Innisfil, Bradford West Gwillimbury, Orillia and New Tecumseth (Alliston), plus what it means if you are buying or selling heading into winter.
The headline takeaway
South Simcoe had a slower October, but supply shrank right along with sales, so the market stayed buyer-leaning rather than getting worse for sellers. These local figures come from TRREB's "Simcoe County" area, which covers Bradford West Gwillimbury, Innisfil, New Tecumseth, Essa and Adjala-Tosorontio (October 2026 vs October 2025):
Sales: 157, down 20.7% from 198 (and down from 187 in September 2026).
New listings: 482, down 21.9% from 617. Active listings: 1,038, down 15.1% from 1,222.
Median price: $775,000, down 3.1% from $800,000, but up from $762,500 in September. Average price: $822,574, down 8.8% from $901,710.
Sale-to-list ratio: 96% on average, the same as a year ago. Months of inventory: 5.9, slightly lower than 6.1 a year ago.
GTA-wide context (all TRREB areas, not local): October sales were 5,603, down 7.9% year over year. New listings were 14,173, down 11.9%. The average selling price was $1,024,108, down 2.7%, and the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was down 4.3%. TRREB also reported that on a seasonally adjusted basis, GTA sales and new listings were up from September. So south Simcoe sales fell faster than the wider GTA this month, after outperforming it in September.
In plain terms, fewer buyers transacted, but fewer sellers listed too. With just under six months of inventory and homes selling at 96% of list on average, it is still a market where buyers can negotiate.
Barrie
Barrie is not part of TRREB's Market Watch, and the local board (OnePoint Association of REALTORS®) still has its public statistics on hold, so I use Wahi's MLS®-based Barrie report. Wahi has rolled to October data, but as of November 4 its October sold counts look incomplete again: for the three towns I can check against TRREB, Wahi shows far fewer October sales than TRREB's official count (for example, 26 vs 40 in Innisfil and 31 vs 54 in New Tecumseth). So for Barrie I am only quoting the listing side and an early price read, not Wahi's October sales total or months of inventory.
Active listings: 1,341, versus 1,025 in October 2025 (Wahi).
New listings: 482, down 10.24% year over year (Wahi).
Median sold price on the sales Wahi had recorded so far: $587,000. Because the month's sales are still filling in, I am not comparing this to last year.
Average days on market for those sales: 24.
My read: Wahi shows noticeably more Barrie homes for sale than a year ago even though fewer new listings came on, so sellers face more competition and buyers have more choice and room to negotiate. For neighbourhoods and commute notes, see my Barrie real estate guide.
Innisfil
Innisfil saw the second-biggest drop in sales among the TRREB towns (TRREB, October 2026 vs October 2025):
Sales: 40, down 34.4% from 61. September 2026 had 56.
Median price: $756,000, down 5.5% from $800,000, but up from $707,500 in September. Average price: $800,697, down 14.4% from $935,465.
New listings: 174, down 24.0% from 229. Active listings: 397, down from 468.
Months of inventory: 7.4 (7.5 a year ago). Sale-to-list ratio: 96%. Average days on market: 39, down from 43.
With more than seven months of inventory, Innisfil is still the clearest buyer's market in this group. Buyers can negotiate, and sellers need sharp pricing and strong presentation. More in my Innisfil real estate guide.
Bradford West Gwillimbury
Sales: 34, down 38.2% from 55. September 2026 had 44.
Median price: $840,500, down 7.1% from $905,000. Average price: $890,188, down 8.9% from $977,060.
New listings: 101, down 19.2% from 125. Active listings: 181, down from 226.
Months of inventory: 4.6 (4.9 a year ago). Sale-to-list ratio: 97%. Average days on market: 35 (36 a year ago).
Bradford's sales fell the most this month after a strong September, but it is still the tightest market here, with the lowest months of inventory and the highest sale-to-list ratio. More in my Bradford West Gwillimbury real estate guide.
Orillia
Like Barrie, Orillia is not in TRREB's report, so these are Wahi's October figures, with the same caution on the sales count:
Active listings: 330, versus 246 in October 2025 (Wahi).
New listings: 103, down 15.57% year over year (Wahi).
Median sold price on the sales recorded so far: $510,000. As with Barrie, I am not comparing this partial-month figure to last year.
Average days on market for those sales: 30.
Orillia has a lot more homes for sale than a year ago, so buyers have more to choose from and more time to decide. Next month's update will show a fuller October picture. More in my Orillia real estate guide.
New Tecumseth (Alliston)
Sales: 54, up 5.9% from 51, and the same as September 2026.
Median price: $747,500, up 1.0% from $740,000. Average price: $778,090, up 0.6% from $773,215.
New listings: 128, down 16.9% from 154. Active listings: 243, down from 300.
Months of inventory: 5.1 (4.9 a year ago). Sale-to-list ratio: 96% (95% a year ago). Average days on market: 37, the same as a year ago and down from 53 in September.
Alliston was the standout this month: the only TRREB Simcoe town with more sales and a higher median than last October, and homes sold much faster than in September.
Simcoe County as a whole
TRREB's Simcoe County numbers cover only five south Simcoe municipalities. For the whole county, Wahi's October report shows 6,327 active listings (5,024 in October 2025) and 1,789 new listings, down 15.53% year over year. The median sold price on sales recorded so far was $645,000. As with Barrie and Orillia, I am not quoting Wahi's October county sales total or months of inventory until the month fills in.
What it means for buyers
You still have leverage. Homes in TRREB's Simcoe area sold at 96% of list price on average, and medians are below last October in Innisfil and Bradford.
Less new supply is coming on. New listings fell 21.9% across TRREB's Simcoe area, so the best-value homes may not wait for spring.
See new listings first. Set up free Listing Alerts, browse my Top Picks Under $700K and download my Buyer's Guide.
What it means for sellers
Less competition. With new listings down about a fifth from last year, a well-priced, well-presented home stands out.
Price to today's comps, not last year's. Medians are down 7.1% in Bradford and 5.5% in Innisfil year over year, and roughly flat in New Tecumseth.
Know your number. Start with a free AI home valuation, then grab my Seller's Guide.
Missed last month? Read the September 2026 Simcoe County market update.
Want a read on your street or building? Call or text me at 647-371-5335 or email darren@cabralrealestate.ca.
Darren Cabral, REALTOR®
CV Real Estate, Brokerage
Sources
TRREB Market Watch, October 2026: GTA headline figures (p. 1) and the "All TRREB Areas, All Home Types" summary for Simcoe County, Innisfil, Bradford and New Tecumseth (p. 3).
TRREB Market Watch, October 2025: year-ago local figures, as originally published.
TRREB Market Watch, September 2026: month-over-month comparisons.
Wahi Housing Market Reports, all types, month of October, retrieved November 4, 2026: Barrie, Orillia, Simcoe.
OnePoint Association of REALTORS® on CREA Stats: board statistics from December 2024 onward are temporarily on hold.
Notes: GTA year-over-year changes are TRREB's own comparisons from the October 2026 report. TRREB and Wahi define active listings, days on market and months of inventory differently, so compare within one source. Wahi's October sales counts were still incomplete on November 4. Statistics are for general information and are not an appraisal of any individual property.
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